2019 is bound to be a special year for new energy vehicles.
this year, the national subsidy standard dropped by 50% on average on the basis of 2018. overnight, the same vehicles sold at different prices; this year, the sales of new energy vehicles experienced a roller coaster-like ups and downs. the sales differed by nearly 60,000 units; also this year, major car companies continued to promote new products and tried their best to seize the opportunity of final subsidies.
recently, jac motors announced that as of november 29, it had received a total of 378 million yuan in government subsidies (excluding the previously disclosed subsidies), plus 463 million yuan in the previous three quarters. .
for the current jac, this subsidy is more like the last life-saving straw before going ashore.
the crisis behind high subsidies
the third quarter financial report released by jac at the end of october showed that in the third quarter, it realized operating income of 37.187 billion yuan and net profit of 122 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.36% and 154.33%. regarding both growth of performance, jac stated in the announcement that it was due to "product structure adjustment" and "cost control".
however, according to the information released by the china federation of automobile manufacturers, jac's cumulative sales in the first three quarters of this year were only 321,000 units, down 11.27% year-on-year. among them, commercial vehicle sales were 194,000, a year-on-year decrease of 7.2%; passenger vehicle sales were 127,000, a 16.5% year-on-year decrease. such sales results make jac's "product structure adjustment" difficult to convince.
to make matters worse, this year jac also received the largest ticket issued by the relevant law enforcement department. in july, jac was punished by beijing's ecological environment bureau for up to 170 million yuan for fraudulent emissions. the weak sales volume and the "extra" huge expenditures, from the perspective of operating conditions alone, jac is already heavily in debt. and it is government subsidies that support the beautiful double-growth data in its financial report. in the first three quarters, in addition to the 463 million yuan received from government subsidies, jac also received 211 million yuan in compensation for demolition. as a result of hefei's subway planning, the government will levy jianghuai's two apartment buildings in hefei and compensate them for 211 million yuan after demolition.
government subsidies have made jac a little more decent.
in fact, jac has been relying on the government's “assistance” for its operation in the past two years. according to jac's 2018 annual report, jac's 2018 annual revenue was 50.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.92%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was as high as 790 million yuan, a 282.802% year-on-year decline. and its net profit can reach 430 million yuan in 2017 and even reach 1.16 billion yuan in 2016. compared to the continuous decline in revenue and net profit, jac's government subsidies have gradually increased. financial reports show that in 2016, jac received a total of 411 million yuan in government subsidies, 602 million yuan in 2017, and increased to 1.278 billion yuan in 2018.
the more and more government subsidies, the less and less the profit in return. facing the gradual decline in sales and market share, how far can jac go on the day without subsidies?
subsidy subsided, who is swimming naked?
not only the jianghuai family, but in the current market environment, there is no new energy vehicle company that subsidizes the halo, and it has long been mourned. it's just that the jac is the lucky one. the face of some companies is already very difficult to see in the face of subsidy subsidence.
at the end of october, changan automobile released its third quarter financial report. data show that in the first three quarters, changan's revenue was 45.115 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.5%, and its net profit loss was as high as 2.662 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 328.83%. it can be seen from the report that the main reason for the decline in revenue and profits is due to the shrinkage of government subsidies. compared to government subsidies which only accounted for 4% of net profit in 2015, changan has now regarded subsidies as the main source of profit.
according to statistics, in 2018 alone, changan automobile ’s own brand, changan sedan, received a government subsidy of 2.873 billion yuan, while changan automobile ’s profit was only 681 million yuan.
too much reliance on subsidies also makes changan's performance situation a lot of potential risks. once the subsidies fall, the real operating conditions will no doubt be revealed. this year's quarterly report is the best proof. in the first three quarters, the subsidies received by changan shrank sharply, only 762 million yuan. after tearing off the "false mask" of this subsidy, changan also revealed the "true face of lushan", whose sales continued to decline. in the first three quarters, its cumulative sales were only 1.2259 million, a year-on-year decline of 23.6%. with this trend, changan may usher in a more difficult winter in the fourth quarter.
also lacking in money is china's new energy sales "one brother" byd. the third quarter report shows that the company's revenue this year was 93.822 billion yuan, an increase of 5.44% year-on-year, and its net profit reached 1.574 billion yuan, an increase of 3.09% year-on-year. correspondingly, in the first three quarters, byd received a total of 1.042 billion yuan in government subsidies. at the same time, a few days ago, byd issued an announcement to apply for the public issuance of public bonds, with a total size of not more than 10 billion yuan. it intends to put funds into operation and repay company loans and other purposes. according to incomplete statistics, byd issued various bonds at least 16 times this year and received a total of 36 billion yuan in cash. one of the reasons for the cash flow shortage is due to declining sales. data show that in the first three quarters of this year, byd's cumulative sales were 335,700 units, a decrease of 4.49% year-on-year. in september, its sales of new energy vehicles were only 13,600, a drop of 50.97%. in october, the decline in sales continued to expand to 55%, which was only 12,600. more importantly, the government subsidy received by byd this year has also fallen sharply. according to byd's 2018 financial report data, last year the company's net profit was 2.78 billion yuan, of which the amount of government subsidies alone reached 2.073 billion yuan, accounting for more than 70% of the total profit.
new energy vehicle industry must learn to "wean"
faced with the upcoming 2020, which is also the year when rumors of subsidies have been completely cancelled, how will new energy vehicle companies respond?
yunsong ling, an automobile investment analyst, admitted that "the significance of subsidies is to protect the naive industry. when the industry has passed its infancy, it should be self-reliant." he gave a very suitable example, "children leave home for the first time to go when i go to college, i feel miserable, but my parents ca n’t stay with him forever. ”he believes that many companies will definitely come out, and they will thank this stage in the future. at the same time, a handful of companies will certainly not be able to survive, but if there is no enterprise to fall, "how to remove excess capacity? in the era of innovation, the government's policy is definitely not to keep all enterprises alive, or even to live comfortably. as long as the industry can stand on its own, there is no powerful enterprises should be eliminated under the test of the market. the survival of the fittest is the original intention of the market, and only by following this rule can we truly cultivate a strong industrial capability. "
"subsidies cannot be addictive." as an absolute representative of the new energy industry, du guozhong, assistant general manager of byd auto, said: "the decline is the end that can be expected from the moment the subsidies begin. the new energy automobile industry must learn to 'wean'. ". in the face of subsiding subsidence, although "aches" are inevitable, byd is ready. du guozhong said that first of all, it is essential to master the core technology. "if a class of products relies mainly on policy subsidies, there is little room for improvement in performance and technology, and sales will decline as the policy declines. we should provide consumers with stronger performance and more value. in this case let him be happy to buy this list. in this way, the promotion and market of new energy vehicles will become bigger and bigger. "second, we must give play to cost and price advantages. du guozhong said that byd is ready to anticipate and respond to subsidy declines, and reduce costs through the commercial scale of new energy vehicles and technical means. "the annual cost of selling 1 million vehicles can be reduced by 20% -30%, which can be offset by policy subsidies, but it takes a time process, at least 5 years or more."
at the same time, for byd, the world's no. 1 sales of new energy vehicles, for the fourth consecutive year, more intelligent new energy vehicles will be launched in the future. "according to byd's '7 4' strategic goal, the places where oil is used will gradually be replaced by electricity to realize the entire industrial chain of new energy vehicles. at the same time, user experience services and the creation of a new energy ecosystem will be enhanced to better meet market demand for new energy models. "